Then there’s the whole network performance thing:

‘Verizon also can’t resist jabbing AT&T by asking “Why pay more for the 3G version and get 3G service on an overloaded network with limited coverage?” This bullet point, though, must have been written before the PC World article from last month was released. Much to the embarrassment of Verizon, the results from the latest carrier showdown reveal that AT&T’s network is passing with flying colors, while Big Red is showing a bit of strain under the load of Android.’

Here’s the rest: Verizon Touts Mi-Fi

Bottom line, the data thing in wireless is where the action will be and change will come – I just didn’t think we’d see it so fast. BTW – one of the comments in the first BGR piece wasn’t concerned about tiered pricing. Give it time, we’re going to see some real interesting iterations on pricing plans and there’s one thing for sure, they won’t be going down in cost. I’d jump on the Skype thing quick and encourage all my friends to do the same; the only way you’ll be able to drive your voice calls over your data plan is Skype-to-Skype. But then there’s Google Voice and they’ll be others.

Bob

Well, one place that seems to have a decent collection of both entertainment and useful information is iTunes. More recently they’ve added something I find really interesting called iTunes U. If you’re not already familiar with this, these are lectures from well-respected professors and well-known business figures speaking at some of the best schools in the U.S., even the world. It’s sort of like eavesdropping on a very expensive education. What’s really great is that it’s free.

As it relates to technology and especially to making informed decisions, we’ve provided a sample of just three that we think you should check out:

1. Decisions – Dr. Jeffrey Pfeffer’s (Stanford) lecture is titled ‘Evidence-based Decision Making’ taken from his book, Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths, and Total Nonsense: Profiting from Evidence-Based Management. Dr. Pfeffer is funny, insightful, and downright entertaining as he goes through why companies make seemingly nonsensical business decisions and how that happens.

-       Following deeply held, but unfounded beliefs such as Silicon Valley companies’ unwavering decision to tie compensation to stock price despite over 200 independent studies that contradict this.

-       Executives who keep doing only what they know from their last job and invariably apply whatever they did before to their new company, even though there is no correlation or similarity.

-       The practice of casual benchmarking  - blindly copying what others are doing without thinking about why it works and under what conditions it will be successful.

2. Effective Negotiating – Margaret Neale’s (Stanford) lecture is titled ‘Winners Don’t Take All’ and along with her article Are You Giving Away the Store? Strategies for Savvy Negotiations in the Stanford Social Innovation Review, we learn a great deal about how bad deals are made. Also an entertaining and insightful discussion, Prof Neale offers stories, examples, and demonstrations of how psychology plays a role in our negotiation decisions. Some examples of her talk:

-       How AT&T purchased NCR for a stock price of over $140 when it started at $41 – with no bidders

-       A group of bankers who in a negotiating exercise in one of her lectures, ended up bidding $352 for a $20 bill.

-       Psychological keys that can predictably and dramatically alter outcomes when players are primed in the right way – either in a positive or negative way.

3. The iPhone Effect – Behind This Week’s Cover Story – Jim Ellis interviews Roben Farzad on his cover story, ‘AT&T’s iPhone Problem. NOTE: This differs from the actual story podcast that can be downloaded from BusinessWeek’s website.  While the article is extensive in its description of AT&T’s wireless network problems, the interview provides a wider perspective that is more relevant to the wireless industry in general. Some examples are:

-       The unforeseen impact of the rapid adoption by a concentrated demographic, such as young college students. Events such as college football games with audiences of 20,000-50,000 and with70% or more all simultaneously using data intensives apps at the same time, creating brand new network challenges.

-       Because of its iPhone exclusivity, AT&T was the single benefactor and lightning rod for criticism on poor data network performance. Farzad, rightly points out with the android and other such platforms, the smartphone’s data consumption will be an issue for the entire industry.

-       Farzad offers a balanced assessment of why wireless networks are and always will be different from landline ones through new applications, rapid growth, and highly coveted devices – all which drive up demand in an ‘all you can eat’ environment.

Links:

You’ll find both Evidence-based Decision Making and Winners Don’t Take All here, then choose to enter through iTunes U. Once in, on left, under Categories, choose Business, then the blue Business Management thumbnail. Open that and you’ll find both lectures.

Here’s the BusinessWeek interview, the date is 2/4/10.

About the authors:

Dr. Pfeffer

Prof. Neale

Robed Farzad

Granted, there will be some kinks in the early stages like spotty adoption by network providers, some bad apps initially and some other limitations, but this is coming folks. (See my original post about Android and iPhones as SUVs for a more complete reference to this post.)

By adding network access options such as wi-fi, it will create pent-up demand for a whole new set of devices. Wi-fi hotspots will compete for your cell signal in order to sell you more with ads for free access. It’s just a matter of time before everyone figures out how to make money.

Remember, they can’t force you to make more calls, but they can lure you onto the web alot more with all that glitters… and that’s where the next cash cow is.

Click here for the story:     http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/16/verizon-to-allow-unlimited-skype-calling-over-3g-starting-next-m/

I wholeheartedly agree. Network providers don’t build networks to offer outstanding service; they build them to add new users and more importantly – revenue. User satisfaction is a happy coincidence. No? Compare the network maps of rural America with low income demographics and metropolitan areas where the cost of living is sky high. Network planners try to stay one half-step ahead of subscriber churn. It’s only when they start to see a shift in users that they budget their build outs.

It’s going to get real interesting when the vectors of net neutrality, Internet access, and user expectations finally come together in critical mass.

Data Overload Vs. Revenue

It’s not just about increasing revenue, say analysts. Carriers are banking on the consumer-friendly aspect: phones are more fun and useful with the Internet.

“The ‘naked aggression’ reason is to boost revenue to offset declining voice revenue,” said Charles Golvin, mobile analyst with Forrester Research. “But carriers also realize consumers won’t get the enjoyment out of their devices without data.”

But analysts caution that carriers need to be careful of data overload. 3G data networks are already in high demand from smartphone users, and smartphone usage was up 40% in 2009, according to an IDC study. AT&T has had well-documented 3G network troubles in New York and San Francisco due to the success of the data-hogging iPhone.

“Carriers are getting people to move to data, but they’re doing it cautiously,” said Lamas. “Rather than have everyone move to data immediately, they’re testing the waters and taking the people who can weather higher prices first.”

“Look how much revenue AT&T is getting from the iPhone,” said Golvin. “It’s easy for Verizon to make hay of AT&T’s problems, but it’s a problem that Verizon wishes it had.”

NOTE: AT&T announced it was releasing 6 Android phones at CES in January. Verizon and T-Mobile are working with multiple hardware manufacturers on newer Android devices. The multi-media device by Apple, the  iPad will be coming out in both Wi-Fi and 3G starting in March, so you do the math.

Bob