SoftBank’s move into the US market using Sprint as the front door could be very exciting, although there are plenty of naysayers out there pointing to the dismal track record of Japanese companies investing in US firms. Some are saying that the difference this time will be the president and founder of SoftBank.

Masayoshi Son’s reputation in Japan, although unknown here, could be a blessing for the US mobile market unless the two big US players take notice and move to blunt it. Referred to as the Bill Gates of Japan, Son sees an opening here with faster data speeds and has already proven to be a viable David against the Goliath’s of DoCoMo and KDDI. (The Verizon and AT&T of Japan).

Why is this of interest? Because we could see a strong third wireless provide in the US that could finally bring true competition and a welcome breathe of fresh air. Not only in terms of more bandwidth, but new types of phones that we can’t even imagine because we’ve never seen them here. Consider that by far, the majority of phone users in the Asian Pacific market use mobile phones over landline – like up to 70%. In the US, it’s about half that.

Another possibility is more choices for service providers and more competitive pricing. Aside from T-Mobile and MetroPCS, which are great companies, but lack the reach needed for enterprise customers on a wide use basis, there is only Verizon and AT&T.

ClearWire plays into this as a Wi-Max provider and the leading spectrum option that’s still available. Sprint currently owns 48% and is making bids for a controlling interest to TimeWarner and Intel. This will accomplish two vital objectives: 1) Give Sprint voting rights on their board, and 2) Ensure ClearWire continues to build out its 4G network in more markets. This also offers some alternatives to local broadband Internet access options that is sorely needed.

All of this, if the planets align, will be good for both the consumer and the business customer. The Sprint-SoftBank merger is projected to close mid-2013 and I would expect a full year or two before the US market starts to see a noticebale shift, although Sprint’s new found vigor could make higher profile headlines sooner.

Yet the Surface buzz seems to center around it’s layout keyboard. At last! The dreaded keyboard issue has been answered. Well, to my thinking it was never an issue in terms of what was missing. The virtual keyboard was always intended to be a secondary means of inputting information. If you could get it to work with a Bluetooth add-on, great. To me, the whole point of its design was it’s naturalness.The iPad pioneered the ability to float freely in a workspace such as classroom or hospital offering up images and answers with fluidity. Finger navigation is an intuitive means to get a response. The key, though, is developing content specifically designed to give quick, digested information plainly displayed. What the device doesn’t do as well is document manipulation and I don’t think Steve Jobs ever really intended it to do that. Because we are visual beings, we read visual information immediately and naturally.

Make no mistake, I’m excited about what Microsoft can do and would love to see them create some real competition in the marketplace. I have been following Windows 8 and really like it. The Surface, while be viable if it lives up to the hype, but also won’t replace the iPad. The one thing that is clear is Microsoft has learned an important from Apple and the iPad. This device is light, highly portable, and fast coupled with a full operating system intended to create and heavily revise documents. I see this more as a replacement for laptops and increasingly desktops as workers become more and more mobile. Work being done in an office is a real estate burden that companies are looking to avoid and now are exploring more work-from-home scenarios. This is where the Surface will shine.

Years ago, MCI made a brilliant marketing play for decision makers in companies who always favored AT&T. It was called Friends and Family. After that, there were fewer barriers to entry as an ‘untested’ product. The logic was that if executives used MCI at home, why wouldn’t they use it at work? Apple has adopted a smiler strategy and I think succeeded quite well. The iPad will continue to further penetrate the enterprise as more workers opt for more stylish devices that offer tools and features they enjoy. Use Facebook as both an entertaining and somewhat work-related activity if you give credence to the Social Media impact on business.

Perhaps Windows 8 has the edge in the enterprise battle based on Microsoft’s legacy platforms, but let’s face it; there’s going to be a big jump here. From what I see, there’s a fragmentation issue with Vista, XP, and even Windows 7 then going to Windows 8. As apple has encroached further into the enterprise from the consumer side, it could well be a toss up between the two platforms.

Then there’s the issue of growth. The Surface offers a new revenue stream as companies will replace all those clunky laptops. Once people started using iPads and with Apple’s savvy move to SSD for it’s MacBook Air, no one is willing to carry around a device that weighs more than a pound or two. The Surface certainly looks appealing and despite being a big Apple proponent, this could make things very interesting. Of course we’ll have to see how Microsoft launches and supports the Surface. One thing that really bothers me is the lack commitment so many tablet wannabes dropped their devices without really establishing a market for them. Microsoft certainly has the money; we’ll have to see if they have the fortitude.

Consider what’s on your phone. Everyone you speak to, where you work, and who you work with. Where you live, shop, eat, and bank. Where you’ve been in the last 6 months. Every text you’ve sent and received. Emails, both personal and professional, as well as their attachments. Pictures, videos, and other potentially embarrassing items. Files that contain handy references including passwords. How about the latest project you’ve worked at your job. Imagine that out in the wild and potentially be used against you or your company. Think your boss would be unhappy with having that big deal compromised?

Here’s some highlights of what they found: (It goes without saying that virtually all phones were accessed even if to find the owner.)

• 89% had personal information accessed (see above for all the goodies you’d be offering)
• 83% had company information accessed
• 45% of the time company emails were accessed and files named ‘HR Salaries’ were hit 53%
• 43% of online banking accounts were attempted to be accessed

It’s not all bad news. There are some helpful tips on how to protect your phone. You can even make it unusable. We don’t like to think of our phones as bricks, but given the choice between having yourself violated or having to cough up another $500 for a new device; it’s a pretty good trade-off. The simplest way to protect your phone is a to use a pin, better yet, set the phone to totally lock up and erase the data after a number of attempts (set it for 10 to be on the safe side). This will stop probably 70% of the finders to begin with. Use some of the other tips and you could drop your liability to about 10% and if it’s a corporate phone with some kind of MDM (Mobile device Management)  software, you could make it 100%.

Remember, these little devices combine two conflicting things: lifestyle convenience and lots of critical data. The more convenient these devices are and how easy they make life, the more liability they provide, as well as an incentive to obtain them. Be smart and read the study.

“In a capacity-constrained environment, usage-based data plans, increased pricing, managing the speeds of the highest volume users—these are all logical and necessary steps to manage utilization,” Mr. Stephenson said in a January conference call with analysts.   ANTON TROIANOVSKI And GREG BENSINGER, Wall Street Journal.

There’s going to have to be an option that serves those with real-time needs and those who get their data later.

Bob

Why? Because the traditional landline companies have acquired or at least dominate the wireless world and if they run true to form – which they have been for well over a hundred years – they will allow network build outs to follow demand; not precede it. Build it and they will come only fits into their business model when a credible competitive threat appears on the horizon. Do they innovate – yes, of course, but only for two reasons: capturing a new revenue stream (texting) or upgrading technology (circuit/packet switching from point-to-point). By the way, I’m not singling out telecommunications companies in this myopia; all businesses have a tendency to follow this logic.

Mobility provides its own special set of circumstances because there are so many variables and this is where I think things could go. For example, mobile data users seem to be drawn to specific kinds of data use: Traditional Users – email/text/downloading/voice, App Centric Users – all the traditional plus Siri-esque apps that constantly touch servers including navigation variations, and finally Low Latency Users. Low Latency Users are just plain data junkies; gaming, video streaming, and other continuously updating applications that eat up data and have to arrive and be assembled in order. They cannot help themselves and suck every megabyte they can get their hands on through the latest devices that are fully capable of drawing it in.

This is how I believe the wireless network providers will capitalize on the user’s megapixel needs; data plans will move from gigabyte accumulation to download speed.  They do this now on landline data circuits and variable bit rate (VBR) real-time data is charged at a premium. The difference is in the delivery. In a physical building you can adjust Class of Service (CoS) and alter bandwidth capacity; you can’t do that in wireless unless you want to maintain both a 3g and 4g network. I don’t think that makes sense from a busines perspective. It also doesn’t help alleviate the demands put on the system. You could say Traditional Users would be 3g and App-Centric and Low Latency Users would be 4g, except you’d be cannibalizing one for the other, as well as having complaints because the Traditional Users will be experiencing growing pains as they migrate in behavior into a 4g realm. The customer service costs would be prohibitive.

My basic axiom about all this still holds true: They can’t make you make more phone calls, but they can make you want to use more data. So, how do they recoup their network investments and maintain a profit? Charge you for access. I have no inside information on this and perhaps someone else has already pointed this out, but in terms of dead reckoning this is where things have to go. For those of us who rely on mobile data, our only alternative is wi-fi which kind of defeats the purpose of mobile data because they’re not secure connections and you have a number of geographical and access restrictions based on where you set up.

Nope. They got us right where they want us and there are fewer options out there in terms of network providers. Of course the carriers will expand 4g and continue to make improvements to their networks, but again only to add new revenue streams and keep up with other technologies that could threaten their position. In the meantime,  costs will go up gradually with various explanations. I also believe voice will be rolled into the plans as a baseline because the vast majority of mobile devices are still used for calling.

So, what would the plans look like? Predictions can be dangerous, but here goes. I would assume unlimited voice calling will be part of the smartphone package: Traditional User plan: $75-80, App-Centric plan: $100-120, and Low Latency plan: $140-150. As you can see, the Low Latency users will add about 30-40% to the network providers margins and offer users a pain-free option to download whatever they want. Of course there will be plenty of little add-ons and some caveats that will alter prices another $10-20 a month, as well as taxes, fees and surcharges.

When will this happen? In the next 1-3 years depending on device and app development which is the vehicle for and content drivers of mobile data.

I’d be curious of your thoughts on this.